Author Intel Author Intelligence

As Amazon Kindle Store has grabbed around 65% market share in the US (less in other countries) and as Amazon continues with its annoying 'Give us Exclusivity' strategy, an important question facing indie authors is

1. Should they give Amazon exclusivity and get benefits like extra visibility given to KDP Select Titles, access to Kindle Unlimited, option for 5 Free Days at KDP, access to KDP Countdown Deals
2. Or should they go wide and benefit from being available not only in the Amazon Kindle Store but also in Nook, Apple, Kobo, Google Play and other stores

There's no easy answer because the right answer can vary

1. Depending on Author
2. Depending on amount of marketing and type of marketing you do
3. Depending on Book. Yes, sometimes a book that does very well wide will not do well in Kindle Select (and vica versa)
4. Depending on level of polish you put into the book
5. Depending on what your aims are

What we'll do here is outline a general strategy that should work well for 80% of cases. Then we will look at Pros and Cons of going wide versus going exclusive to Kindle Select

The Strategy that will work well for 80% of Cases

1. Make your book wide for 3 months and have it available in all the major book stores - Amazon Kindle, Apple iTunes, Barnes and Noble Nook, Kobo, Google Play
2. Promote it with a small but reasonable sized marketing budget
3. Measure how much revenue and how much net take home you make (after factoring in costs)
4. Then, after 3 months of being wide, make the book exclusive to KDP Store for 3 months. Please Note: This option is not recommended if over 60% of your earnings are from non Kindle Stores. This is best if 50% or less of your earnings are from non-Kindle Stores
5. Promote your book in the Kindle Store with a small and reasonably sized marketing budget
6. Measure how much revenue and how much net take home you make (after factoring in costs)
7. If Kindle Store with KDP Select makes you more, then go with that. If going wide makes you more, then go with that. If they make you almost the same amount, go with wide because it's better not to be dependent on one single store for all your earnings

This method will work well 80% of the time. It's the best way to test things and the only way to actually know what is the best option FOR YOU and FOR YOUR BOOKS

Authors who are better suited to going exclusive with KDP Select

1. Authors who don't want to do the work of having different formats for different stores
2. Authors who don't want to do the work of tracking sales in different stores and doing promotions for different stores
3. Authors who don't mind having all their eggs in one basket. In many ways this is the biggest drawback of going exclusive with Kindle KDP Select. If you don't mind this then KDP Select is a good option
4. Authors who have never been burned by Amazon. If you've never run into the pages read going missing issue, and other Amazon issues, then you probably don't mind going all-in with Amazon
5. Authors who want to just focus on writing and if going with one store causes headaches down the line, want to solve those headaches then (and not even think about all that now)
6. Authors whose books don't sell very much, and yet get lots of pages read in Amazon's Kindle Unlimited program (and make good money that way)
7. Authors who want to try Kindle Unlimited. Please Note: At the moment you cannot enroll for Kindle Unlimited until and unless you join KDP Select

Authors who are better suited to going wide

1. Authors who see more sales in Apple and Nook and Kobo and Google Play than they see in Kindle Store and from Kindle Unlimited. A simple financial calculation
2. Authors who already have good readership in non Kindle stores like Apple iBooks, B&N Nook, Google Play, and Kobo
3. Authors who are thinking long term and are wary of the long term implications of authors giving one store exclusivity and turning it into a monopoly
4. Authors for whom Kindle Unlimited doesn't work. One of the biggest advantages of KDP Select is being in Kindle Unlimited. If that doesn't work for you, then most of the KDP Select benefit is gone
5. Authors who want to build up revenue streams from all/most of the stores and want to build up readerships in all the stores. It's always better to have sales coming in from all the stores and to have readers in all the stores
6. Authors who don't want to deny readers in non Kindle stores the chance to get their books
7. Authors who don't want to put all their eggs in one basket. Please Note: Amazon has a history of not being the basket you want all your eggs in. You might say - we are special, we are their partners, without us they wouldn't have books to sell. Well, the Big Publishers said the same thing. Now Amazon is using indie authors and small publishers and their own imprints and Big Publishers aren't special any more. Crux - don't put all your eggs in one basket when that basket has a history of being undependable

Long Term Risks of going exclusive with KDP Select

1. At some point Amazon closes down Kindle Unlimited or KDP Select or stops caring about individual authors. Then all your investment would be gone
2. At some point Amazon starts focusing on Big Publishers and Small Publishers and its own imprints and phases out individual authors
3. Apple iBooks or Walmart+Kobo become significant and you start missing out on sales there. Please Note: A mitigation of this risk is that KDP Select term is just 3 months. Do note that it would take 3 months to 2 years to build up a readership in a new store

Long Term Risks of Going Wide

1. Kindle Store grows and becomes 90% of the market. Amazon continues to give KDP Select titles various advantages in terms of reach and promotion and visibility and you lose out (as you are wide)
2. Bookstores other than Kindle start seeing lower and lower sales for indie authors. At that point all the effort you put into building up a readership in these stores would become a waste
3. Amazon starts doing additional things to give KDP Select books a boost in visibility and sales over books that are wide. Basically, there are a lot of subtle advantages of being in KDP Select. There are ways in which KDP Select books are given more visibility and exposure. Amazon could dial this up quite a bit. If it does, then authors that are wide would start getting squeezed out of Kindle Store

Summary & Conclusions

Conclusion 1 - Without actually testing you can't know. No matter what anyone advises you, their advise is based on a set of authors and a set of books. If they present it as gospel then they are mistaken - what works best for an individual author cannot be determined until you test both options. In some cases experts advising very strongly in favor of one option (or the other) are basically evangelists and connected to one or more stores. Crux: You have to test yourself to see what works better for you. Try 3 months wide. Try 3 months exclusive to Kindle Store with KDP Select. That will give you a very good idea of what option is your best choice

Conclusion 2 - There are very real risks with whatever scenario you choose. Have a backup plan. For Example: If you decide to go Wide, have another series of books which you have exclusive to Kindle

Conclusion 3 - Build your own direct channels to readers. Then you can point them to whichever store or market you sell your books in. If your only way to reach readers is with someone else's permission, then you don't really have any real way of reaching your readers. A good illustration of this is an ebook store asking for exclusivity and basically saying - Here's a way you can make additional money from us. All you have to do is forsake money you could be making from other stores. That's really not a win-win situation. The only solution is to have your own direct channels to your readers